He could not fail to see that trade was picking up.In dry goods, in hardware, in manufactures there seemed to be a different spirit, and he could imagine that it was a spirit of optimism.There, in that great city where the Heart of the Nation beat, where the diseases of the times, or the times' healthful activities were instantly reflected, Jadwin sensed a more rapid, an easier, more untroubled run of life blood.All through the Body of Things, money, the vital fluid, seemed to be flowing more easily.People seemed richer, the banks were lending more, securities seemed stable, solid.In New York, stocks were booming.Men were making money--were making it, spending it, lending it, exchanging it.Instead of being congested in vaults, safes, and cash boxes, tight, hard, congealed, it was loosening, and, as it were, liquefying, so that it spread and spread and permeated the entire community.
The People had money.They were willing to take chances.
So much for the financial conditions.
The spring had been backward, cold, bitter, inhospitable, and Jadwin began to suspect that the wheat crop of his native country, that for so long had been generous, and of excellent quality, was now to prove--it seemed quite possible--scant and of poor condition.He began to watch the weather, and to keep an eye upon the reports from the little county seats and "centres" in the winter wheat States.These, in part, seemed to confirm his suspicions.
From Keokuk, in Iowa, came the news that winter wheat was suffering from want of moisture.Benedict, Yates'
Centre, and Douglass, in southeastern Kansas, sent in reports of dry, windy weather that was killing the young grain in every direction, and the same conditions seemed to prevail in the central counties.In Illinois, from Quincy and Waterloo in the west, and from Ridgway in the south, reports came steadily to hand of freezing weather and bitter winds.All through the lower portions of the State the snowfall during the winter had not been heavy enough to protect the seeded grain.But the Ohio crop, it would appear, was promising enough, as was also that of Missouri.In Indiana, however, Jadwin could guess that the hopes of even a moderate yield were fated to be disappointed;persistent cold weather, winter continuing almost up to the first of April, seemed to have definitely settled the question.
But more especially Jadwin watched Nebraska, that State which is one single vast wheat field.How would Nebraska do, Nebraska which alone might feed an entire nation? County seat after county seat began to send in its reports.All over the State the grip of winter held firm even yet.The wheat had been battered by incessant gales, had been nipped and harried by frost;everywhere the young half-grown grain seemed to be perishing.It was a massacre, a veritable slaughter.
But, for all this, nothing could be decided as yet.
Other winter wheat States, from which returns were as yet only partial, might easily compensate for the failures elsewhere, and besides all that, the Bears of the Board of Trade might keep the price inert even in face of the news of short yields.As a matter of fact, the more important and stronger Bear traders were already piping their usual strain.Prices were bound to decline, the three years, sagging was not over yet.
They, the Bears, were too strong; no Bull news could frighten them.Somehow there was bound to be plenty of wheat.In face of the rumours of a short crop they kept the price inert, weak.
On the tenth of April came the Government report on the condition of winter wheat.It announced an average far below any known for ten years past.On March tenth the same bulletin had shown a moderate supply in farmers'
hands, less than one hundred million bushels in fact, and a visible supply of less than forty millions.
The Bear leaders promptly set to work to discount this news.They showed how certain foreign conditions would more than offset the effect of a poor American harvest.
They pointed out the fact that the Government report on condition was brought up only to the first of April, and that since that time the weather in the wheat belt had been favorable beyond the wildest hopes.
The April report was made public on the afternoon of the tenth of the month.That same evening Jadwin invited Gretry and his wife to dine at the new house on North Avenue; and after dinner, leaving Mrs.Gretry and Laura in the drawing-room, he brought the broker up to the billiard-room for a game of pool.
But when Gretry had put the balls in the triangle, the two men did not begin to play at once.Jadwin had asked the question that had been uppermost in the minds of each during dinner.
"Well, Sam," he had said, by way of a beginning, "what do you think of this Government report?"The broker chalked his cue placidly.
"I expect there'll be a bit of reaction on the strength of it, but the market will go off again.I said wheat would go to sixty, and I still say it.It's a long time between now and May.""I wasn't thinking of crop conditions only," observed Jadwin."Sam, we're going to have better times and higher prices this summer."Gretry shook his head and entered into a long argument to show that Jadwin was wrong.
But Jadwin refused to be convinced.All at once he laid the flat of his hand upon the table.
"Sam, we've touched bottom," he declared, "touched bottom all along the line.It's a paper dime to the Sub-Treasury.""I don't care about the rest of the line," said the broker doggedly, sitting on the edge of the table, "wheat will go to sixty." He indicated the nest of balls with a movement of his chin."Will you break?"Jadwin broke and scored, leaving one ball three inches in front of a corner pocket.He called the shot, and as he drew back his cue he said, deliberately:
"Just as sure as I make this pocket wheat will--not go--off--another--_cent._"
