7.Early in this century, when wages were low and wheat was dear, the working classes generally spent more than half their income on bread: and consequently a rise in the price of wheat diminished marriages very much among them: that is, it diminished very much the number of marriages by banns.But it raised the income of many members of the well-to-do classes, and therefore often increased the number of marriages by licence.(28*) Since however these were but a small part of the whole, the net effect was to lower the marriage-rate.(29*) But as time went on, the price of wheat fell and wages rose, till now the working classes spend on the average less than a quarter of their incomes on bread; and in consequence the variations of commercial prosperity have got to exercise a preponderating influence on the marriage-rate.(30*)Since 1873 though the average real income of the population of England has indeed been increasing, its rate of increase has been less than in the preceding years, and meanwhile there has been a continuous fall of prices, and consequently a continuous fall in the money incomes of many classes of society.Now people are governed in their calculations as to whether they can afford to marry or not, more by the money income which they expect to be able to get, than by elaborate calculations of changes in its purchasing power.And therefore the standard of living among the working classes has been rising rapidly, perhaps more rapidly than at any other time in English history; their household expenditure measured in money has remained about stationary, and measured in goods has increased very fast.Meanwhile the price of wheat has also fallen very much, and a marked fall in the marriage-rate for the whole country has often accompanied a marked fall in the price of wheat.The marriage-rate is now reckoned on the basis that each marriage involves two persons and should therefore count for two.The English rate fell from 17.6per thousand in 1873 to 14.2 in 1886.It rose to 16.5 in 1899; in 1907 it was 15.8, but in 1908 only 14.9.(31*)There is much to be learnt from the history of population in Scotland and in Ireland.In the lowlands of Scotland a high standard of education, the development of mineral resources, and close contact with their richer English neighbours have combined to afford a great increase of average income to a rapidly increasing population.On the other hand, the inordinate growth of population in Ireland before the potato-famine in 1847, and its steady diminution since that time, will remain for ever landmarks in economic history.
Comparing the habits of different nations(32*) we find that in the Teutonic countries of Central and Northern Europe, the age of marriage is kept late, partly in consequence of the early years of manhood being spent in the army; but that it has been very early in Russia; where, at all events under the old r間ime, the family group insisted on the son's bringing a wife to help in the work of the household as early as possible, even if he had to leave her for a time and go to earn his living elsewhere.In the United Kingdom and America there is no compulsory service, and men marry early.In France, contrary to general opinion, early marriages on the part of men are not rare; while on the part of women they are more common than in any country for which we have statistics, except the Slavonic countries, where they are much the highest.
The marriage-rate, the birth-rate and the death-rate are diminishing in almost every country.But the general mortality is high where the birth-rate is high.For instance, both are high in Slavonic countries, and both are low in the North of Europe.The death-rates are low in Australasia, and the "natural" increase there is fairly high, though the birth-rate is low and falling very fast.In fact its fall in the various States ranged from 23to 30 per cent in the period 1881-1901.(33*)NOTES:
1.See IV, i, section 1.
2.Thus Aristotle (Politics, II, 6) objects to Plato's scheme for equalizing property and abolishing poverty on the ground that it would be unworkable unless the State exercised a firm control over the growth of numbers.And as Jowett points out, Plato himself was aware of this (see Laws, v, 740: also Aristotle, Politics, VII, 16).The opinion, formerly held that the population of Greece declined from the seventh century B.C., and that of Rome from the third, has recently been called in question, see "Die Bev鰈kerung des Altertums" by Edouard Meyer in the Handw鰎terbuch der Staatswissenschaften.
3.Political Economy, section 254.
4.He argues that Holland is richer than it appears to be relatively to France, because its people have access to many advantages that cannot be had by those who live on poorer land, and are therefore more scattered."rich land is better than coarse land of the same rent." Political Arithmetick, ch.1.
5.Discourses on Trade, ch.X.Harris, Essay on Coins, pp.32-3, argues to a similar effect, and proposes to "encourage matrimony among the lower classes by giving some privileges to those who have children," etc.